Friday, November 22, 2013
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Thursday, November 7, 2013
market wrap November 7th 2013
Mortgage rates were flat to marginally lower today. The mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that most directly inform lenders' rate sheets were surprisingly unperturbed by the morning's GDP data and other considerations, suggesting any chance of more sincere movement is being reserved for tomorrow's Employment Situation some positive and negative momentum finding relative balance in bond markets (of which MBS are a part). This was the case as early as late September, when rates were coming down from their highest levels in more than 2 years. They'd settled in to an exceptionally narrow range to wait out the government shutdown and were largely successful.
Monday, November 4, 2013
warket update November 4th 2013
Mortgage rates were mostly flat today, though some lenders offered slightly improved rate sheets compared to Friday afternoon. The improvements would have been small enough to only be seen in the form of "closing costs" and/or lender credit, while the actual quoted interest rate between today and Friday would likely be the same.
The bond markets that underlie and best inform mortgage rates had a calm, but agreeable day. There was a previously delayed report on Factory Orders added to the mix (along with the regularly scheduled Factory Orders report), but bonds didn't move on the news. That may change with tomorrow, as the scheduled data is more prone to causing movement.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Market Wrap 10/29/2013
Mortgage rates continued flying their recent holding pattern just over 4 percent. Most lenders' rate sheets were essentially unchanged compared to yesterday's latest. Additionally, we never saw enough bond market movement during the course of the day to justify any mid-day changes. The most prevalent Conforming (best-execution) has been pinned to 4.125% with very little change in associated closing costs for a week now.
Because most lenders adjust rates in 1/8th (0.125%) increments, the next time the best-execution quote moves lower, 30yr fixed rates will be back at 4.0%. Some lenders are offering that now, but it's not the norm, and may involve additional closing costs.
mortgage rate watch
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
market update 10/23/2013
Interest rates have clearly experienced an adjustment courtesy of jobs
report, and the magnitude of the move is in line with the magnitude of the
"miss" (in that we saw a good sized improvement in rates for a
good-sized discrepancy between the actual jobs numbers and expectations).
From here, the remaining economic data will offer fine-tuning adjustments,
either helping the continue the trend lower in rates, or suggesting a broader
leveling-off process before the next big jobs report (which is only two weeks
away due to shutdown-related rescheduling).
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Mortgage Interest rate wrap
Mortgage rates
began the day in slightly higher territory, but most lenders adjusted
rate sheets mid-day, bringing the average rate just below yesterday's latest
offerings. Underlying market conditions are as much a culprit in the
welcome turnaround as anything. Conventional 30yr Fixed quotes for the
most ideal scenarios are still most readily found at 4.625% though some lenders are an eighth higher
or lower.
The typical correlations between economic data and market movements broke down to some extent (for the 4th time this week) due to lighter participation among traders and looming geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Syria. In the same way that markets refused to take rates any lower on Tuesday afternoon, they weren't eager to take them any higher this morning. It continues to be the case that the biggest movements will be dependent on more thorough market participation, which isn't guaranteed to show up until next week.
The typical correlations between economic data and market movements broke down to some extent (for the 4th time this week) due to lighter participation among traders and looming geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Syria. In the same way that markets refused to take rates any lower on Tuesday afternoon, they weren't eager to take them any higher this morning. It continues to be the case that the biggest movements will be dependent on more thorough market participation, which isn't guaranteed to show up until next week.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Market Wrap August 28 2013
Mortgage rates
bounced higher today, moving back in line with Monday's levels.
Conventional 30yr Fixed quotes for the most ideal scenarios are back to 4.625% on average though some lenders are an eighth higher or
lower. Frustratingly, this is one of those days where there is no overt
"cause and effect" for the movement whereas yesterday's could more
readily be chalked up to geopolitical risks surrounding Syria.
Interestingly enough, when Syria seemed to have been a source of market movement yesterday, we characterized it as the easiest mainstream explanation, with the whole story being less simple. It's those "less simple" factors that came into play today. In an effort to be sure they received their adequate treatment yesterday, today's move higher was basically accounted for in advance.
Interestingly enough, when Syria seemed to have been a source of market movement yesterday, we characterized it as the easiest mainstream explanation, with the whole story being less simple. It's those "less simple" factors that came into play today. In an effort to be sure they received their adequate treatment yesterday, today's move higher was basically accounted for in advance.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
August 27 2013 Market Wrap ... Lock and load
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in nearly two weeks
today. Conventional 30yr Fixed quotes for the most ideal scenarios are back down around 4.5% for some lenders and remain at 4.625% for many others.
The most visible, mainstream explanation for the move is the geopolitical risk
surrounding Syria and the effect global markets. Such risk can indeed
motivate a "flight to safety" where investor demand tends to shift
toward the least-risky assets like US Treasuries and out of more risky assets
like stocks. While these two things are indeed happening, the whole story
isn't quite that simple
Monday, August 26, 2013
August 26 2013 market wrap
Mortgage rates
continued lower today after a weaker-than-expected economic report this
morning from the manufacturing sector. Not only does weak economic data
put downward pressure on interest rates in and of itself, it also helps firm up
the consensus on when and how the Fed will begin reducing its asset
purchases. "Sooner and bigger" is worse for rates, but the more
weak data, the more the implication shifts towards "later, less, or
both."
The data was out before lender rate sheets and markets had largely reacted to it by then, but MBS (the 'mortgage-backed-securities' that most directly influence mortgage rates) stayed strong all day, indirectly benefiting from the geopolitical risk that was hurting the stock market in the afternoon. Some lenders released improved rate sheets throughout the day, resulting in a 30yr fixed rate moving firmly back down to 4.625% now , for the most ideal scenarios. Some lenders are well-priced at 4.5%, but they are the exception.
The data was out before lender rate sheets and markets had largely reacted to it by then, but MBS (the 'mortgage-backed-securities' that most directly influence mortgage rates) stayed strong all day, indirectly benefiting from the geopolitical risk that was hurting the stock market in the afternoon. Some lenders released improved rate sheets throughout the day, resulting in a 30yr fixed rate moving firmly back down to 4.625% now , for the most ideal scenarios. Some lenders are well-priced at 4.5%, but they are the exception.
Friday, August 23, 2013
Market Wrap August 23 2013
Mortgage rates shot significantly lower today after the
New Home Sales report showed far fewer executed purchases contracts than
expected for the month of July. The move came in phases with most lenders
releasing at least 2 rate sheets. Some offered bigger improvements, while
others got back in line with the rest of the pack. The net effect was
nearly a full eighth of a point drop in average rates for ideal scenarios,
bringing best-execution
down to 4.625% in many cases while some notable lenders remain at 4.75%.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
today August 21 Market Wrap
Mortgage rates
rose moderately following today's release of Minutes from the July 31st
FOMC Meeting. There was no meaningful new information, but there was also
nothing to challenge the notion that the Fed would move any less quickly to
reduce the pace of asset purchases--widely expected on September 18th.
Had such a challenge been seen, rates may have benefited today. As it
stands, they've risen back in line with Monday's levels. Some lenders are
slightly worse, and a small majority slightly better. All are close to
their highest levels in more than 2 years. Conventional 30yr Fixed quotes
(best-execution)
are centered on 4.75%.
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
market wrap
Mortgage rates
moved lower today, recovering a good portion of yesterday's
losses. There were no significant economic events and much of the
positivity for rates was a factor of overnight trading in Asia and
Europe. In short, the correction is just that--something that wouldn't
have existed without recent sharp moves higher. After moving up to a
range of 4.75 to 4.875%, the most prevalent 30yr Fixed conventional rate quote(best-execution)
is better characterized by a 4.625 to 4.75% range today--much better
than yesterday, but still the 2nd or 3rd worst day in more than 2 years
depending on the lender.
Monday, August 19, 2013
As we discussed on Friday, markets continue to take a defensive stance
against the prospect of the Fed reducing the pace of their asset
purchases. As investors withdraw from bond markets, the prices of
mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) fall, forcing lenders to offer higher
rates. The combination of the Fed asset-buying speculation, seasonal
absences among market participants, and debate over the next Fed Chair
nomination is creating a very uncertain environment where traders are more apt
to trade according the momentum. One analogy is that it's easier to go
with the flow of the current than to swim against it .Mortgage interest
rates were convincingly higher today, continuing last week's move
toward the levels not seen in over two years. Those levels were reached
by some lenders today as they rose above July 5th's highs, while others aren't
quite there yet.
August 2013 the State of California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) has announced a new round of affordable lending programs designed to help well-prepared low and moderate income families become California homeowners.New and old programs have been designed to give first time homebuyers access to programs that have special provisions that promote sustainable homeownership, responsible underwriting and a minimal required investment.
New Qualifying Guidelines
Consistent with it’s effort to create sustainable homeownership, CalHFA has published new qualifying guidelines for it’s programs.Updated underwriting guidelines are consistent with QM (qualified mortgage) Rules.
While some of these guidelines are more restrictive that programs of the past, the increased attention to financial stability allows CalHFA to offer some pretty amazing programs.
Updated Eligibility Changes to CalHFA Loans:
- Updated income limits – increased in many Counties
- 2 Year Home Warranty required unless the purchase is new construction.
- 43% Debt to Income (DTI) Limit
- 8 Hour Homeowner Education Course required
- Minimum Required Investment
- Credit Score 640-679 = $1,500
- Credit Score 680+ = $1,000
- Required borrower contibution can be a gift
- 103% Maximum Combined Loan to Value including Assistance Programs
- Minimum Credit Score 640
- Non Occupying Co-Signers allowed – income does not count toward limits
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Mortgage rates
leveled off today, after moving abruptly higher on Tuesday. Bond markets,
including MBS (the mortgage-backed-securities that most directly influence
rates) bore little resemblance to yesterday's behavior. Trading levels
barely budged from start to finish, regardless of the morning's economic data
and afternoon headlines. On average, lenders were microscopically worse
than yesterday's last rate sheets, but the effects would only be seen in
closing costs. The most prevalent 30yr Fixed quote (best-execution)
is still straddling 4.5% and 4.625%. Paying points to buy down to lower
rates might make sense for some scenarios, but is comparatively more expensive
than it was on Monday (meaning the cost in terms of points to move from 4.5% to
4.25% is higher independent of yesterday's overall move higher).
Monday, August 12, 2013
Mortgage rates began the day in much better shape compared to Friday's latest offerings, but market volatility in the afternoon prompted most lenders to reprice. The net effect was a rate sheet environment that ended up in similar territory to Friday though a small portion of the improvement remained.
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Mortgage rates moved lower again today, hitting their best levels since July
23rd. That achievement is mostly a factor of what has been an extremely
flat rate environment for the past two weeks followed by a moderate
improvements over the past 2 days. The day was generally drama-free with
the Jobless Claims report in the morning arriving in line with expectations and
an average Treasury bond auction in the afternoon. In general, the
markets that underly mortgage rates are relatively detached from the day to day
minutiae at the moment and prepared for bigger movement in the weeks to come.
Conventional 30yr Fixed best-execution remains at 4.5% and buydowns to 4.25%
may make sense for some scenarios.
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
The week continues to be every bit as riveting as expected, which is to say it's not-at-all riveting. At least today's version of inconsequential drifting was the one where we move higher in price. The counterpoint is that not much of the gains in price made it through to rate sheets, largely because lenders held off on repricing worse yesterday and today's prices didn't even crest yesterday's 9:30am levels until after the 10yr Auction. When they did, it was by 2 and a half ticks. Not a huge deal, and not a huge gain on rate sheets. The auction was the only tradable event of the domestic session, with most of the volume and movement coming in the European hours. Tomorrow offers another chance to see if data can stir sleepy summertime markets with Jobless Claims. If the data and the auction result are on the same page, it could be good for bond markets, but lenders are likely to be less aggressive until Class A settlement is over. Tomorrow is roll day (prices will "drop" at the close as August Fannie/Freddie 30's are retired and September prices take over
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